"OpenAI preparing to drop their new model" -anonymous
About a month ago I made a prediction to my inner circle that as soon as OpenAI releases GPT5, the industry will learn that further improvements in quality have significant diminishing marginal returns (the reverse of exponential curve) - essentially making any future progress at the foundational level quite costly, if not impossible.
OpenAI came up with a workaround, and reset their model # to an obscure o1. Nice trick, but this will not protect them from PR info-wars forever. Even with o1, the industry is starting to notice that improvements are only marginal1.
So it is likely we're going to see OpenAI try to delay the release of GPT5 as long as possible, or avoid it entirely.
What to make of this “AI Ceiling”? Honestly, this is very good. Good for the industry and especially good for application developers. The focus is finally going to shift to satisfying customer use cases with real product feature sets, and not chase artificial boosts through what essentially amounted to juicing software products with RedBull.
But you don’t have to believe me. We can wait and see this game play out in real terms and check back a year from now.
Until then, I am busy working and proving my theories in practice, but can always be reached at:
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OpenAI's GPT5
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"OpenAI preparing to drop their new model" -anonymous
About a month ago I made a prediction to my inner circle that as soon as OpenAI releases GPT5, the industry will learn that further improvements in quality have significant diminishing marginal returns (the reverse of exponential curve) - essentially making any future progress at the foundational level quite costly, if not impossible.
OpenAI came up with a workaround, and reset their model # to an obscure o1. Nice trick, but this will not protect them from PR info-wars forever. Even with o1, the industry is starting to notice that improvements are only marginal1.
So it is likely we're going to see OpenAI try to delay the release of GPT5 as long as possible, or avoid it entirely.
What to make of this “AI Ceiling”? Honestly, this is very good. Good for the industry and especially good for application developers. The focus is finally going to shift to satisfying customer use cases with real product feature sets, and not chase artificial boosts through what essentially amounted to juicing software products with RedBull.
But you don’t have to believe me. We can wait and see this game play out in real terms and check back a year from now.
Until then, I am busy working and proving my theories in practice, but can always be reached at:
LinkedIn
x.com/getdml
https://artificialanalysis.ai/